Something’s broiling in the Pacific
Something’s broiling in the Pacific
| Reine Depra
Are you starting to feel the summer heat? Can you endure it for the coming months?
The sun hangs heavier than usual over the Philippines as shimmering heat blurs roads, and air stands still, signaling the familiar arrival of summer this March.
Extreme heat conditions are already gripping parts of the Philippines, with Cotabato City recently recording a “danger level” heat index of 45°C, signaling how quickly temperatures can rise to hazardous levels during the dry season.
But beyond the usual summer heat, scientists are closely monitoring a developing climate pattern over the Pacific Ocean—one that could intensify conditions even further.
Compared to the previous summer, the upcoming 2026 season is marked by a higher likelihood of El Niño development, prompting earlier monitoring and warnings despite currently neutral conditions.
El Niño is a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean marked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures that disrupt global weather systems. In rare cases, this warming strengthens into a “Super El Niño,” where ocean temperatures surge at least 2°C above normal, leading to more extreme and dangerous impacts.
While it is a recurring phenomenon, current forecasts indicate a higher likelihood of its development in 2026, compared to last 2025, despite neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific, prompting closer monitoring by climate agencies.
Despite neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific, experts and climate models point to a 79% chance that El Niño could develop between June and August 2026 and continue early 2027. Because of this, the DOST-PAGASA has raised its El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Alert and Warning System to El Niño Alert.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a one-in-four chance that such a Super El Niño could develop between May and July 2026 and persist until the end of the year.
If it does emerge, its effects could be severe. Southeast Asia may experience prolonged droughts, threatening water supply and agriculture, intense flooding and rainfall to South America, and stronger typhoons in China, Japan, and the Philippines.
In the Philippines, El Niño is associated with below-normal rainfall and prolonged dry spells that can trigger drought conditions, particularly in agriculture-dependent areas.
Reduced rainfall may also cause declining water levels in major reservoirs such as Angat Dam, affecting water supply in Metro Manila.
El Niño has been linked to reduced yields of major crops such as rice, maize, and wheat, with negative impacts observed in up to 22 to 24 percent of global crop areas.
Still, experts emphasize that this remains a possibility—not a certainty—urging the public to stay informed without giving in to panic.
In the country, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has already raised an El Niño Watch, warning of possible impacts on water availability, food production, energy supply, and public health.
As temperatures continue to rise, health risks such as heat exhaustion and heat stroke also become more likely. To reduce these risks, simple acts such as staying hydrated, avoiding prolonged exposure to direct sunlight, and wearing light, breathable clothing.
Using umbrellas or hats for protection, checking on vulnerable individuals such as children and the elderly, and conserving water are also strongly encouraged.
Staying informed through official advisories can further help communities prepare for worsening conditions.
– PAGASA
> Facebook: DOST-PAGASA
> Website: https://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/
> Contact Information: (02) 8284-0800 ext. 4910 (Ms. Jorybell Masallo – Climatology/Agrometeorology Division)
– Philippine Red Cross
> Facebook: Philippine Red Cross
> Website: https://redcross.org.ph/
> Hotline: 143 or (02) 8790-2300
Because as the same relentless sun continues to blaze overhead, preparation—not panic—will determine how well communities endure the heat of the months ahead.